Sunshine State Showdown: Jaguars Favored By 2 1/2 Over Dolphins

NFL News - December 7th, 2009 - Written by John

The I-95 rivalry has suddenly taken on a whole new level of importance. For the first time this decade, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins meet with playoff implications on the line on Sunday. Jacksonville is clinging to a wild card spot at 7-5, while the Dolphins remain just one game back of the New England Patriots for the AFC East lead.

At home, the Jaguars are favored by 2 1/2 points, according to BetUS, with a total of 44 in the NFL Week 14 Betting Odds.

Separated by 350 miles of interstate, the match-up has typically been reserved for the preseason. It is only the third time they've met in the regular season since 2002, and the first since 2006. Although there are still four weeks to go, it's safe to say neither team can afford a loss floundering in a pack of "also in the mix" teams at or narrowly above .500.

For the record, Miami has won the last three preseason games. Although they haven't been particularly sizzling this year, both have clawed their way back in the picture with big division wins.

The Dolphins stunned the Patriots last week with a 22-21 win on Dan Carpenter's 41-yard field goal in the game's final minute. Chad Henne threw for a career-high 335 yards and two touchdowns, leading his team on an improbable comeback down 21-10 midway through the third quarter. NFL Draft throwaways Brian Hartline and Davone Bess combined for 158 yards and two touchdowns in the win. Hartline's seven-yard score got his team within reach at 21-19.

Miami is 6-6 with a brutal finishing stretch against the Tennessee Titans, Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers, making this week a defacto must-win.

Same goes for the Jaguars, who have quietly maintained their status as second in line to make the post-season behind the Denver Broncos. They have won four of their last five, including a 23-18 win over the Texans last week, getting more out of their passing game than usual. David Garrard went turnover-less for the first time since October, and his 555 yards are the most of any two-game stretch this year.

But the air attack has created some drawbacks.

Maurice Jones-Drew is in the middle of his biggest drought of the year, running for no more than 76 yards in any of the last three games and finding the end zone but once. He hasn't been issued the ball more than 25 times in the last four games and is averaging just under four yards a carry.

It is likely he will bounce back against a Miami rush defense that is in the middle of the pack, but Dolphins running back Ricky Williams will be tough to overcome. With Ronnie Brown out for the year, Williams has taken the majority of the carries and has 411 yards and four total touchdowns.

Jacksonville and Miami rank fifth and sixth in the AFC in rushing, with just over four yards per carry each, but the Dolphins' 14 touchdowns on the ground doubles that of the Jaguars.