Elimination Game Favors Miami Dolphins Over Houston Texans

NFL News - December 22nd, 2009 - Written by John

The Miami Dolphins' season took a fruitless turn last week when they failed to beat the Tennessee Titans in a game that would have put them in a two-way tie for the final wild card spot in the AFC.

The Houston Texans managed to keep their slim hopes alive by beating the hapless St. Louis Rams by a field goal.

Neither team controls it's destiny, but a win on Sunday would at least maintain the potential for a prayer in the season-finale. A loss would mean elimination.

One team will, in fact, be turned away when the Texans travel to Miami to face the Dolphins. 2009 NFL Week 16 Betting Odds show the Dolphins are favored by three at home, according to BetUS, with a total of 45.

Houston has won four-straight over the Dolphins since 2003, including a win in each of the last three years. Miami was favored by at least three in the last two meetings.

But each of those wins came by three points or fewer, and it looks to be a similar result this year. Both teams are fighting for their lives at 7-7 with potent offenses that can certainly roll the scoreboard.

The Texans eeked by the St. Louis Rams last week with 367 yards by quarterback Matt Schaub. Andre Johnson had 196 of those yards with a long of 49, and has an NFL-leading 1,433 yards on the year, and is on pace to finish with a career-high 1,693 yards. Three other receivers had at least five catches on the day to put Houston at second in the league in passing offense.

Schaub has 4,181 yards on the year, also a career best, with 25 touchdowns and only 13 picks.

Miami boasts an alternative style, relying primarily on the run to eat up their chunk of real estate. Since inheriting the bulk of the carries via injury to Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams has exploded for four 100-yard games in the last six weeks. He has over 1,000 yards for the first time since 2003 and has found the end zone 11 times. Only one other player has a rushing touchdown, and that's quarterback Chad Henne, who scored in a crucial game two weeks ago against Jacksonville.

Henne also adds 2,416 yards and 10 scores through the air.

Houston has one of the better defenses in the league, led by Rookie of The Year candidate Brian Cushing, but only grades out at 17th in the league against the run.

Although the teams are filled with superstars on offense, history indicates that this game may go below the projected total. The Texans have gone under in seven of their last eight December games, and six of their last eight as underdogs.

Miami is 7-1 ATS against the AFC recently, but has gone under in eight of it's last nine Week 16 games.