Jaguars' Playoff Hopes Fleeting; 8 Point Dogs Against Patriots

NFL News - December 22nd, 2009 - Written by Bryan

New England will get a chance to clinch the AFC East division title with a win at home this week against Jacksonville. Last week the Patriots won for the first time all season in an opponent's home stadium when they beat Buffalo 17-10.

Jacksonville nearly knocked off the undefeated Colts on Thursday night, but Colts quarterback Peyton Manning led another fourth quarter comeback to derail the Jaguars attempt. The loss damaged the playoff aspirations of Jacksonville as they slipped to a record of 7-7.

This game is very important for both teams. Jacksonville has no chance of winning their division as Indianapolis wrapped it up several weeks ago, but the Jaguars are still alive for the wild-card. For the Patriots, a win would seal a division title and a spot in the playoffs.

New England quarterback Tom Brady has been very "un-Brady-like" this season. On Sunday against the Bills, he was 11 of 23 passing for only 115 yards. Brady has thrown at least one interception in the Patriots last four games and has a passer rating of 59.1.

“It comes down to execution. We’re really clicking when everyone gets the ball, everybody possesses it, when we run the ball, we play-action pass, we spread ’em out,” Brady said following the Buffalo game. “Sometimes I think we get into a one-dimensional game, which is not really our style. We gotta keep finding ways to keep them off balance and just keep fighting.

The Patriots are in the bottom half of the league in rushing. RB Laurence Maroney leads the team with only 735 yards on the ground. Maroney splits times with RB Kevin Faulk, who has rushed for 300 yards on the season. Many teams have been able to stop the New England running attack without having to put extra men in the box.

Jacksonville has always been a stout defense against the run and will look to stop Maroney and Faulk. This season the Jaguars are surrendering only 104 yards per game on the ground. Jacksonville will try and make the Patriots one dimensional. The 2009 version of Brady is not the "Brady of old" and the Jaguars will force him to throw.

Fortunately for Brady, he can throw to slot receiver Wes Welker. Welker is having a career year with 109 receptions and nearly 1,200 receiving yards. Welker has been Brady's favorite target and will continue to be so against the Jaguars. He is a mismatch every time he lines up.

On the other sideline, Jacksonville presents some match-up problems for New England, specifically with RB Maurice Jones-Drew. On the season, Drew has 1,250 yards rushing but also has 50 receptions for 33 yards. Jones-Drew is a dual-threat back and the Patriots will have to account for him.

Quarterback David Garrard played very well against the Colts last game, completing 23 of 40 passes for 223 yard and 3 touchdowns. Garrard is known as a QB who protects the ball well and rarely makes mistakes.

Look for the Jaguars to established Jones-Drew in the first quarter and then allow Garrard to test the susceptible Patriots secondary.

Oddsmakers at BetUS are going with the Patriots this week as they have installed New England as an eight point favorite to defeat Jacksonville at home in the 2009 NFL Week 16 Betting Odds. The over/under for the contest is currently sitting at 43 1/2 points.