Vegas a Non-Believer, Denver Underdogs At Home

NFL News - October 6th, 2009 - Written by John

The Denver Broncos are a mile high after beating the Cowboys last week. But their road to 5-0 will have to go through the Patriots this week when they host Tom Brady on Sunday.

Brady already led New England past one of the NFL's dominant defenses last week when he beat the Baltimore Ravens. Now he will try to make a dent in the no. 1 overall unit that has allowed only 26 points this season. The Broncos schedule has not been as comparable to New England's, but whenever you allow less than a touchdown a game, you have a good chance to win.

But oddsmakers are benefiting New England for a tougher schedule so far and are giving them a minus-3 line despite being on the road with an over/under of 41. Taking Denver with the points will give you a +105 return while the Patriots' moneyline is -175, according to BetUS Sportsbook.

Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton has been wonderfully uneventful this year, now one of only three quarterbacks with at least 50 pass attempts to have zero interceptions. It is a big change to Jay Cutler's gunslinger mentality and has allowed the Broncos to remain in every game. Like last week, when Dallas controlled the tempo of the game, yet only led 10-0 for most of the first half. Orton nipped at the Cowboy defense, simply taking what he could get, before finally blowing up in the fourth quarter. He hit Brandon Marshall on a post deep in the zone and the Pro Bowler zig-zagged his way to a game-winning touchdown. It was more than enough for the defense, who stoned Tony Romo three times in a row inside their five-yard line to seal the win. The Cowboys only scored 10 points after scoring 65 in the first two weeks of the season.

But the Patriots have been through it all before, facing three of the top 11 defenses in the league through four weeks. They are 2-1 in those games, only losing to the Jets.

New England, however, is a top-10 defense itself, only allowing 287 yards a game and is one of 12 teams to hold opponents to less than 100 yards rushing. That will be key to stopping Denver. The Broncos are fourth in the league in rushing when a stable of quality backs like Knowshon Moreno. But they did take somewhat of a hit last week when leading rusher Correll Buckhalter limped off the field with a sprained ankle. He returned on crutches and will be questionable for this week.

The Broncos have a long history with the Patriots, including last year's blowout 41-7 loss at Foxboro. The last time they beat New England was in 2006 when Jake Plummer was quarterback, and they are 3-2 since 2002.

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