Super Bowl XLIV- The Smart Money Is On The Favorite, History Proves

NFL News - February 5th, 2010 - Written by Bryan Cross

In Horse racing, the betting favorite will come out on top in roughly 33 percent of races. That means that on two out of every three thorough-bread racetracks, an underdog will prevail. Sometimes we even witness a 50-1 long-shot come through, as was the case in the 2009 Kentucky Derby, when Mine That Bird shocked the world by winning the "run for the roses."

In the NFL, the all-time highest regular season win percentage for an organization over the years are the Miami Dolphins, who have won approximately 59 percent of their games.

When it comes to the Super Bowl however, favorites come out on top nearly 75 percent of the time. Of the previous 43 Super Bowls played, 32 of the teams favored heading into the match up have won.

This is good news for any player donning an Indianapolis Colts uniform. The Colts have been installed as a consensus five-point to a six-point favorite in the NFL Odds at sportsbooks to defeat the NFC Champion New Orleans Saints.

The Colts should have fond memories of playing a Super Bowl in Miami, as it was the site of their last NFL Championship in 2007. They defeated the Chicago Bears 29-17. Quarterback Peyton Manning was voted the MVP of the game. The Colts were similar favorites over the Bears, as they are this year against the Saints. The lines for both games were close five-points in favor of the Colts. With their 12-point victory, Indianapolis continued the trend of favorites claiming the Super Bowl title.

Some online sportsbooks lowered the line of Super Bowl XLIV to five-points, following the revelation that Colt Pro Bowl defensive end Dwight Freeney was hindered by an ankle injury that could force him to miss the game.

Freeney is the unquestioned leader on the defensive front for the Colts, and his absence will be sorely missed if he is unable to go.

“He hasn’t been practicing. If he’s not practicing, obviously we’re preparing as if he’s not going to play," Indianapolis head coach Jim Caldwell said to the Associated Press. "If we have an opportunity to get him in there, we’ll do so."

Freeney injured his ankle during the Colts AFC Championship victory over the New York Jets in the fourth quarter. On the year, he led the team with 13 1/2 sacks.

Drew Brees, quarterback for the underdog Saints, will have a far easier time against the Indianapolis secondary if the front four of the Colts is unable to get pressure on him. Brees threw the most touchdowns in the NFL this season, as the Saints possess a potent passing game.

Brees spreads the ball around. Seven different Saints receivers tabbed 35 or more receptions this season.

New Orleans will try and reverse the "underdog curse". Kick off for Super Bowl XLIV is Sunday, February 7th at 6:30 pm EST. It will be broadcast live one CBS.