Historic Super Bowl Betting Lines Favor Indianapolis Colts

NFL News - January 25th, 2010 - Written by John

The Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints went stride-for-stride, toe-to-toe, through most of the regular season as the first teams to simultaneously go 13-0 in one season.

And now, as the teams are finally set to complete the journey together in the Super Bowl that could have happened in 2007, and was inevitable in 2009.

Atop the power rankings for almost the entire year, the Colts and Saints have done little to distinguish themselves as an overwhelming favorite against the other. Both won in their regular-season audition in Miami's Sun Life Stadium, won their conference's no. 1 seed, and won with surprising defensive prowess in the postseason. Thus, oddsmakers have issued the second-narrowest opening line for a Super Bowl in two decades.

The Colts are favored by 5 1/2, according to DSI, although some experts predict that line may get even smaller as the game nears.

One thing is for sure, though, there will be a lot of points scored, which has allowed Vegas to start with the highest over/under in Super Bowl history at 56.

The Saints are made their first league championship in franchise history after escaping the NFC Championship in overtime. New Orleans had to battle back from behind nearly the entire way, matching the Minnesota Vikings with a touchdown in every quarter. Drew Brees threw for three touchdowns, and converted several key third-downs in overtime to set up Garrett Hartley's game-winning field goal to win it.

The Saints forced five turnovers with a hawking defense that pounded Brett Favre and terrorized Adrian Peterson. They had the league's third-best turnover ratio during the regular season (+11), and have seven turnovers this postseason.

Bourbon Street likely won't wrap up it's celebration for some time, maybe not even until the team arrives in Miami. The community erupted after the win, and some media outlets have reported police officers even driving through the streets blaring their horns.

For Indianapolis, as exciting as their 30-17 win over the New York Jets was, the celebration was a bit more subdued as the team makes it's second appearance in the Super Bowl in the last four years. The Colts beat the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl 41 in '07, the year the Saints lost in the NFC Championship.

Peyton Manning torched New York's secondary for 377 yards, but was far more docile as he outlined his performance.

"I thought we just kept our mouths shut and went to work this week," Manning said.

Manning and Brees were both elected to start in this year's Pro Bowl, but will be allowed a pass because the All-Star exhibition will be played this weekend.

It is the first time since 1993 that both no. 1 seeds reached the championship, when the Dallas Cowboys beat the Buffalo Bills.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS ADVANTAGE

Does it even really matter who the other 10 players are on the field? Peyton Manning admitted to reporters on Monday morning that he changes plays routinely, and the Colts clearly have no problems with it. And why should they? He just wrapped up his fourth league MVP trophy and is in the Super Bowl for the second time in his career. Despite being ripped apart by injuries, Indianapolis continues to win with reserves because of Manning's ability to answer scores with authority before a game can get out of hand the other way.

"Probably the biggest thing is when he goes up against the best, he takes his game to another level," head coach Jim Caldwell said. "I think that's something we've kind of grown accustomed to around here."

In two of his NFL Playoffs games this season, Manning dealt a demoralizing blow to the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets with touchdowns that sent his team into halftime on a high note. And don't expect the Saints to benefit from the kind of sloppy play they saw from the Vikings. Manning has only turned it over twice in his last four games.

Oh, and Indianapolis hasn't lost a single game this season that Manning and Co. played all the way through.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS ADVANTAGE

It's hard to really know what to make of Reggie Bush. These playoffs have basically been the outline of his entire career after blowing up randomly against the Arizona Cardinals with two dazzling touchdowns, then disappearing in the conference title game.

But there is clearly no one on the Colts who can match his versatility and speed and there is always the danger there that he can break open a game, especially if the game gets unexpectedly bogged down with punts.

Until he is more of a consistent factor, it's hard to say he is a big factor coming into the game, but he is a good illustration of New Orleans' diversity advantage it has over Indianapolis. Four receivers had at least 500 yards over the regular season, and five players scored at least five times.

Brees is one of football's best deep-ball throwers, and although he was a bit off for most of the game against Minnesota, the Saints may have too many options down field for the Colts' banged up, and back-ups infused secondary.

STATS AND STREAKS

- New Orleans is 6-1-1 ATS in it's last eight games on grass, including a win earlier in the year at Sun Life Stadium in a road win against the Miami Dolphins.

- Indianapolis is 9-1-1 ATS in it's last 11 grass games, and 7-2-1 ATS in it's last 10 overall.

- No team other than the San Diego Chargers has beaten the Colts in the playoffs since the 2005 season.

- Before the Saints, the highest-scoring team in the NFL has reached the Super Bowl only twice since 2002. Both teams (Oakland, 2003, and New England, 2007) lost.

- The Colts haven't scored fewer than 20 points since Nov. 22.

- Both Indianapolis and New Orleans played in Sun Life Stadium during the regular season and won. It's the first time in NFL history that both Super Bowl teams played and won in the stadium that was set to host the championship during the season.

- The Saints had the league's third-best turnover ratio in the regular season, and forced seven turnovers in their two playoff games. But the Colts have coughed it up only twice this postseason.