Quarterbacks Dominate Early Super Bowl MVP Lines

NFL News - January 12th, 2010 - Written By John

Try picking the two Super Bowl teams this week. Then pick the winner. Then pick the player who will steal the show in the ultimate game.

That's essentially what BetUS is asking for in their Super Bowl MVP prop bet.

It is fairly obvious that the MVP will have to be on a team that, you know, actually plays in the Super Bowl, but after that can be anyone's guess. Moreover, no player from a losing team has ever won the game's MVP award, so it will likely have to come from the team you believe will win the whole thing.

The Colts currently have the best odds because they have been unstoppable as long as Peyton Manning is quarterbacking, winning 23-straight regular season games before he was pulled in the last two of this season. He hasn't played a full game for three weeks, so it would be understandable if he lags in the division round against Baltimore. And the Ravens look good right now. Really good.

But there is no doubt, he has the best chance to win the award if his team reaches the final than anyone, and so, is the leader at +200. Because while other teams have multiple players who have been vital to their team's success, and could explode at any given moment, Manning is his team's one true star. The Colts go as he goes. I know the obvious reaction to that would instantly turn to Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, but the only way they could sniff the award is if Manning goes off.

He won the MVP the last time Indianapolis won the Super Bowl in 2007, and recently collected his record-setting fourth league MVP.

Philip Rivers has the second best NFL betting odds (+300) because he has the chance to knock off Manning before any of the NFC teams. He has a fairly good shot because the Chargers have beaten the Colts three of the last four meetings, including two-straight in the playoffs.

Drew Brees is third, which is somewhat curious because there are prop bets floating around asking bettors to predict the exact Super Bowl match-up, and the New Orleans Saints are involved in both of the top-two scenarios.

That should indicate someone on the Saints would have greater odds to win, and be named MVP, but Brees is the only member listed and is the third horse at +400.

There are four teams with multiple players on the list, primarily because those teams are void of any real superstar that distinguishes himself over another. There would be no Larry Fitzgerald without Kurt Warner (see games started by Matt Leinart), and there would be no Kurt Warner without Larry Fitzgerald. And thus, they are the longest of shots, getting odds of +2000 because there may be difficulties distinguishing one from the other in a big passing game.

Vikings running back Adrian Peterson's numbers have come to a crawl in recent weeks, but that has reportedly come from Brett Favre's decision to audible out of running plays. Putting up MVP numbers by one, would assuredly mean eliminating those of the other.

Running back Thomas Jones (Jets) and Ray Rice (Ravens) seem to have the inside track in being the game's top player, provided even get there. And that's a big "provided". New York and Baltimore are still longshots to even make it to the Super Bowl, and would need to play each other before considering winning the whole thing.

Because their teams have transformed into run-first, their quarterbacks are the longshots to put together the game's best performance. Both Mark Sanchez and Joe Flacco are at +1800.

A quarterback has won the award in 22 of the 43 games, although only four times in the last nine.

Adrian Peterson +800
Brett Favre +500
Drew Brees +400
Joe Flacco +1400
Kurt Warner +2000
Larry Fitzgerald +2000
Mark Sanchez +1800
Peyton Manning +200
Philip Rivers +300
Ray Rice +1800
Thomas Jones +1200
Tony Romo +400