Sportsbooks Still Disrespecting New York Jets In AFC Championship

NFL News - January 18th, 2010 - Written by John

New York Jets head coach Rex Ryan told reporters before Week Two that the team would treat their impending match-up against the New England Patriots as their Super Bowl. They won 16-9.

He told reporters at the end of the regular season that he thought the Jets were the team to beat. So far, nothing indicates otherwise.

Maybe there's something to these Jets, who alone have defied the odds to reach the AFC Championship. With a powerful running game, surprising leadership and a defense that has lived up to it's name, New York now has to travel to Indianapolis to face the top-seeded Colts.

Despite the Jets' meteoric rise in the AFC, Indianapolis is favored by 7 1/2, according to NFL Playoffs Betting Lines, with a total of 40.

The Colts looked strong in last week's whipping of the Baltimore Ravens, and all signs indicate it was a good decision by head coach Jim Caldwell to keep his starters safe at the end of the year. But while sitting Manning and Co. in the last two games of the regular season allowed for an uneventful win last week, it may cost Indianapolis later.

That's because in doing so, the Colts essentially gave the Jets a win in the second-to-last game and put their playoff fate in their own hands. New York hasn't lost since.

After being left for dead late in the season, the Jets have surged to four-straight wins in which Mark Sanchez has turned his image around. Gone is the wide-eyed rookie who threw 14 interceptions during a 1-6 streak midway through the year. He only has one turnover in the last four, and has thrown two very critical touchdowns late in the two playoff games.

But certainly, New York would have been out long ago if not for it's top-ranked running game that has suddenly centered around Shonn Greene. The rookie out of Iowa has rushed for 100 yards in both playoff games, a Jets first, and his 53-yard score against the Chargers was the game-winner.

Thomas Jones has only totaled 75 yards in the postseason, but still leads the team with 1,402 overall.

Indianapolis hasn't had a single 100-yard rusher this season, and is dead last in rushing.

But the Colts seem to have a pretty good formula to beat a running-minded team with a good defense. Manning wasn't sensational, but had two impressive touchdown passes in a 20-3 win over the Ravens, and Indianapolis' defense ripped apart Ray Rice. After rushing for 156 rush yards in the wild card round, Rice was limited to 60, and Baltimore turned the ball over four times.

New York has only coughed the ball up once so far this postseason, and hasn't allowed more than 14 points to any opponent since mid-November.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

A lot will be made of the Jets defense, but don't sleep on Indianapolis, which gave up it's lowest point total in almost 40 years against the Ravens. The top seed forced four turnovers, including a fumble during Ed Reed's interception return.

There's probably no better quarterback to be faced with New York's defense in a championship game than Manning, so again, the spotlight will fall back on Sanchez's shoulders. If he can avoid turnovers, like he has been able to do recently, the game can stay within reach and allow the Jets to continue with the running game. That way, BetUS' +1000 odds for New York to win the AFC could make a lot of gamblers very happy. If not, hovering around 100 passing yards for the day just won't do, and the team with the lowest payout will win as predicted.

STATS AND STREAKS

- The home team is 7-3-2 ATS over the last 12 meetings.

- New York is 7-3 on the road so far this year, which is the second-best record in the NFL. The two teams ahead of them are the Colts and Saints (7-1), who each have home games.

- Sanchez has a passer rating five points higher than Manning's in the postseason (92.2 to 87.9).

- The Jets have hit the over in six of their last nine against AFC opponents.

- Indianapolis has played the under in seven of it's last nine NFL Playoff games.

- Sunday will be the first time both no. 1 seeds play in the conference championship since 2004.

- The Jets have the top-raked defense, but the Colts surrendered their fewest points in a playoff game (3) since 1971.