New York Jets A Longshot To Upset San Diego Chargers

NFL News - January 11th, 2010 - Written by John

New York Jets head coach Rex Ryan told reporters last week that he thought his team should have been favored to win the whole shebang, but the likely reality is that coming this far has been a blessing. After being handed a free pass into the NFL Playoffs by the Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals, the Jets overcame long odds to win on the road and advance to the second round.

But their road to the AFC Championship is blocked by the hottest team in the league when they travel west to face the San Diego Chargers in the divisional round Sunday afternoon.

NFL Betting Lines have the Chargers favored by 7 1/2, with a 42 1/2, primarily because no one has been able to slow Philip Rivers down.

San Diego is the second seed after winning the AFC West with a current league-high 11-straight wins to close out the regular season. It has covered the spread in seven of those 11 games, and has pushed the game total over in five of the last six.

The Jets have won three of the last four, including a 20-17 win in the first round of the 2005 playoffs, but the Chargers pounded them in a 48-29 preseason game at the beginning of this year.

They were picked to win the AFC West after three-straight postseason appearances, but fell to 2-2 after Week Six. But since losing to the Denver Broncos that week, San Diego has beaten every team in it's path, including a 32-3 revenge win over the Broncos in late November. It's 28.4 points per game are fourth-best in the league, despite ranking 31st in rushing. It hasn't been held under 20 points in any game this year, but New York hasn't allowed that much to any of it's last seven opponents.

The Chargers are charting the same path as the no. 1 seed Indianapolis Colts, dominating the NFL despite an unconventional method of neglecting the run.

But they have yet to play a defense like New York's, which ranks atop the league in almost every category. Ryan may have an argument in that regard because the Jets are first against pass, and allow the fewer points (14.8) and yards (252.3) than anyone.

Thomas Jones leads a rushing attack that is also tops in the NFL, averaging over 172 yards per game. New York used both to dominate it's rematch with the Bengals last week, gaining 171 rushing yards and forcing two turnovers.

Rookie Shonn Greene was the weekend's third 100-yard rusher, gaining 135 yards and a touchdown.

But the difference was the inspired play by Mark Sanchez, who completed his highest percentage of passes all year. He was 12-for-15, which was only the second time all year he completed more than 63-percent of his throws.

Despite being tied for second in interceptions (20), Sanchez hasn't been picked off in his last three games.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

San Diego is a long ways from the frigid temperatures the Jets have become accustomed to. They've won two in a row in sub-30 temperates, which essentially force teams to abandon the passing game and rely more on a grueling rushing attack and defense.

But the warmer temperatures will certainly benefit the Chargers, and give Rivers a chance to comfortably throw 30 or 40 times. If he gets on a roll, New York will be forced to keep tabs with it's air attack, meaning Sanchez will have to continue his impressive performance from a week ago.

No rookie quarterback had ever completed more than 70-percent of their passes in their first playoff game until Sanchez.

STATS AND STREAKS

- Despite having the league's best defense, New York has played the over in six if it's last eight against AFC opponents.

- Since 2002, only two teams that led the NFL in total defense ended up winning the Super Bowl. Tampa Bay did it in 2002, then Pittsburgh did it last year.

- San Diego is 7-3 hitting the under in it's last 10 January games.

- The Jets have had a rusher with at least 90 yards in six of their last eight games. Only one Chargers back has reached that total all year, back in Week 10 when Tomlinson rushed for 96 against the Philadelphia Eagles.

- Rivers has only thrown three interceptions in the last eight contests, and two of them came in the same game.

- San Diego has faced six of the top 13 defenses this year, and two of the top five.

- The Chargers are 2-2 in home playoff games since 2005.

- Four of New York's last five playoff games have been on the road.