Indianapolis Colts, Not New Orleans Saints, Favored To Win SB XLV

NFL News - February 8th, 2010 - Written by John

What was supposed to be a night that only added to the folktale about the big, bad Peyton Manning, turned into a soft, heartwarming story of the New Orleans Saints Sunday night as black and gold confetti reigned down for the first time.

They broke their 43-year championship drought by becoming the first team in NFL history to beat three Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks (via ProFootballTalk) in one postseason. They knocked Kurt Warner silly in the divisional round, roughed up Brett Favre in the conference championship, then foiled Peyton Manning's bid for a second Super Bowl.

But as forecasters look forward to the 2010 season, the Saints are far from darlings. New Orleans isn't the favorite to win Super Bowl 45. Heck, it doesn't even have the second-best odds.

Just hours after clearly establishing itself as the single-best team in the NFL without question or controversy, future lines listed on Bodog have the Saints as the third horse for next year's championship, tied with the New England Patriots with 10/1 odds and only narrowly better than the Pittsburgh Steelers at 11/1.

The main argument here is that no team since the Denver Broncos has won back-to-back titles, and it's only been done twice over the last two decades. Although New Orleans beat the odds, and got the best of Manning Sunday night, oddsmakers presume that moment will be left to the pages of history.

Tracy Porter will run to the end zone forever in NFL Films documentaries, and Drew Brees' tender moment with his son will never age.

But a repeat, which will probably be met with far less adoration, is unlikely.

Manning's career is far from over and remains the reigning MVP of the league. Although no Super Bowl-losing team has ever won the championship the following year, the Indianapolis Colts are the favorites with 13/2 odds, according to NFL Future Betting Odds.

The San Diego Chargers have the second-best odds, despite being upset in the second round of the AFC bracket by the New York Jets. Likely sans LaDainian Tomlinson, the Chargers will probably address the running game this off-season, rather it be via draft or free agency, which would make Philip Rivers all that more dangerous in 2010.

But as for New Orleans, the path to the championship was trying, losing the final three games of the regular season and backing into the postseason. Despite questions of their resolve, the Saints answered in a big way, scoring 76 points in their two NFC playoff games before scoring 31 against Indianapolis, which had previously allowed just 20 in it's last two.

Drew Brees was the MVP with 288 yards and two touchdowns, and had one of the most endearing moments with his son during the postgame celebration. As possibly the most fruitful free agent gambles in NFL history, Brees will be reward this off-season with a monster contract extension the team says. In fact, most of the team's core will be back as well. Provided that they can get team defensive MVP Darren Sharper back in uniform, nothing much will be different than this year.

Well, except for expectations. No New Orleans team has ever been faced with repeating, and history tells oddsmakers that it is extremely rare to repeat.

Of the past five Super Bowl champions, two lost in the first round of the playoffs the following year, and two missed the postseason altogether. The only team to win a playoff game the next season was the 2005 New England Patriots, who then fell in the divisional round to the Broncos.

But history isn't exactly on Indianapolis' side either. The last team to even reach the championship after losing it the year before was the 1994 Buffalo Bills, who lost the Super Bowl four years in a row. Three of the last four Super Bowl losers didn't even make the playoffs the next year.

The only exception was this year's Arizona Cardinals, who lost 45-14 to the Saints in the divisional round.