New England Patriots Get Edge Against Baltimore Ravens

NFL News - January 4th, 2010 - Written by John

No rematch in New England this week. Just a boring ol' meeting between two of the most successful franchises in the past 10 years. While the other three wild card games are rematches between teams who played each other in the season finale, the Patriots host the Baltimore Ravens in the fourth without all the deja vu.

The teams haven't faced each other since early October, when Derrick Mason dropped a pass past the chains on fourth down that would've extended the game. Instead, Tom Brady sat on the ball as the final ticks milked away, and New England won, 27-21.

The Patriots are hosting their second opening round game since 2002, and are favored by 3 1/2, according to BetUS. They won both of those wild card games.

The over/under for the game, according to NFL Playoff Betting Lines, is 43 1/2, and the Ravens have done well to keep it opponents in check. They have kept the game under in six of their last eight against the AFC. Conditions will be chilly, so this has a chance to go under, too, especially considering New England has kept 11 of it's last 14 home playoff games below the line and hope to do the same in the 2009 NFL Playoffs.

The game could have been a rematch of Week 17 after New England lost late to the Houston Texans, 34-27. Houston was hoping for a miracle win by the Oakland Raiders over the Ravens to get in, but those hopes were dashed when JaMarcus Russell came into the game for Oakland.

Instead, it's Baltimore who squeaks in for the second-straight year, winning three of their last four in December and January. Probably the most critical win of the year was an overtime victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 12. Not only did it help eventually attain nine wins, but it allowed a season split with the defending champion Steelers to avoid a loss in the tie breaker.

The Patriots were devastated last week when Wes Welker tore both his ACL and MCL in a freak accident in last week's game, and Julian Edelmann, who had 103 yards in his place, will get the start.

WHEN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE BALL

The Patriots are sixth points per game and third passing yards. They are one of the better passing teams in the league because they gain so many yards after the catch with short slants and screens, and they rank second with 5.46 yards after the reception. A big reason for that has been Welker, and now that he's out, it will be important for Randy Moss and Edelman to increase their productivity.

WHEN BALTIMORE HAS THE BALL

Ray Rice has emerged as a premier running back in the league with four 100-yard performance on the year and seven touchdowns. His 1,339 yards are sixth in the league, and he has done it on a 5.3 yard per carry clip.

In the loss to New England earlier in the year, Rice ran for 103 yards and averaged almost 10 yards per carry. That's important because the Patriots defense hasn't been particularly good against the run this year, ranking 13th overall, and allowing 119 yards to Houston's Arian Foster last week in his second-career start.

New England is the 12th-best rushing team, but Baltimore is fifth-best at stopping it. The Ravens are one of eight teams who have allowed less than 100 yards per game on the ground this year.

STATS AND STREAKS

- The Patriots have had a 100-yard receiver in all but two games since Week Five. That's the good news. The bad news is in the 11 games during that span, Welker was the leader in six of them. He's now out with a shredded knee and will miss the entire playoffs. It was nice to see Edelman step in and get 103 yards in his place, but losing the league's second-leading receiver is certainly tough to recover from.

- Tom Brady's ribs are hurting and although it's not clear when the injuries occurred, indications are it was probably around Week 13 when he lost to the Miami Dolphins. Since then, Brady has been held to under 200 yards passing in three of the last four games, and only has six touchdowns in that span.

- Joe Flacco hasn't been much better than Brady. He has 268 total passing yards over the last two games, and has had only one multi-touchdown game since Week Six. The running game seems to be strong, and it better be.

- New England has won six of the last seven against the Ravens, with it's only loss coming in a preseason game last year, 16-15.