New England Patriots Given Edge Over Baltimore Ravens In Prop Betting

NFL News - January 7th, 2010 - Written by John

The Baltimore Ravens haven't beaten the New England Patriots in the regular season since 1995, and betting lines in several NFL Sportsbooks are playing off the recent struggles.

BetED has a half dozen prop bets for Sunday afternoon's wild card game, and all of them lean towards a victory by the Patriots. NFL Playoff Betting Lines have Patriots favored to score first - with a touchdown -, last, and win both halves. The sportsbook also sees a winning margin anywhere between one and 12 points by New England as the most likely result.

Baltimore did manage to beat the Patriots, 16-15, in a preseason game last year, but has lost six-straight in games that count, including a 27-21 defeat earlier this season. New England didn't exactly sizzle that game, and the Ravens actually had a shot at winning it until Derrick Mason dropped a fourth-down pass late in the fourth quarter, which would've resulted in a first down.

Sunday's NFL Playoffs game is the only wild card meeting that isn't a rematch of a Week 17 game, so it may be a bit more challenging to predict the specifics of the game, but there are a few indications that may point bettors in the right direction.

For instance, the Patriots scored first and last in their Week Four meeting in October, and are favored to do so again. BetED is dishing out a return of -133 with a Patriots score to open the game, and it is also predicting they will do it with a touchdown.

The Patriots are down one of their best receivers, but losing Welker doesn't figure to impede their scoring opportunities. He only found the end zone four times, and most of Brady's touchdowns went to either Randy Moss or Ben Watson. New England scored first in exactly half of it's 16 games this year, and did it with a touchdown four times. Two of those game-opening scores came on interception returns.

The return on such scenario is +170. Here's the full list of odds:

Baltimore Field Goal +270
Baltimore Safety +12500
Baltimore Touchdown +260
New England Field Goal +200
New England Safety +12500
New England Touchdown +170

The Patriots are the sixth scoringest team in the league with 26.7 points per game, primarily because of it's two top receiving threats in Welker and Moss. With Welker now out, rookie Julian Edelman will get the start out of the slot, meaning Moss will likely get the majority of the scoring attempts.

It's not like he didn't anyways. His 13 touchdowns were nine more than Welker, and his average yards per catch was 15.2.

The Ravens score 24.4 points a game on average, and with the Patriots favored in the game by three, and a winning margin around that neighborhood is projected by BetUS. The full list of odds is:

Baltimore 1-6 points +475
Baltimore 7-12 points +575
Baltimore 13-18 points +1300
Baltimore 19-24 points +2700
Baltimore 25-30 points +4000
Baltimore 31-36 points +6600
Baltimore 37-42 points +10000
Baltimore 43-48 points +10000
Baltimore 49 or more points +10000
NE 1-6 pts +400
NE 7-12 pts +400
NE 13-18 pts +500
NE 19-24 pts +900
NE 25-30 pts +1800
NE 31-36 pts +2700
NE 37-42 pts +4000
NE 43-48 pts +5500
NE 49 or more pts +8000