Boise State Looking To Enter Title Picture

NFL News - October 1st, 2009 - Written by Scott

These days you can bet your house on it. It's dependable. Reliable. Everything you want out of a safe-bet. Like it or not, the National Championship game will have superpowers matching up and it won't matter the record.

The BCS system supposedly mutates and adjusts it's approach with every passing day to make a educated formula to decide the two best teams in the country. It's supposed to get rid of the bias voters tend to have, adding computers to make up 1/3 of the poll.

But the computer, the only unbiased voter, can still be overruled by the other 2/3. And it typically is.

By now, we might as well start the college football season with automatic eliminations and be truthful. Just be up-front about it. If you are in the WAC, MAC, Mountain West or Conference USA, get out. These teams will never be able to put a championship football trophy in their halls. After all, there is nothing in the past that suggests any team from sub-conferences will be considered for the National Championship. Not big wins, not flawless records, not even big name players and coaches.

Several voters from last year's Harris poll admitted they didn't even watch a single down of Utah's undefeated season last year before deciding they were out of the title discussion. Many of them said they didn't need to.

But there is a small ribbon of hope, if you consider it to be so. Boise State finds itself in the best position any mid-major team has ever been in. They are fifth in both the AP and Coaches' polls early in the season and three of the teams in front of them play each other. No. 1 Florida still has to play no. 3 Alabama and no. 4 LSU during the regular season and will more than likely play one of them again in the SEC Championship. By then two of those teams will be out.

Texas, meanwhile, still has a match-up with Oklahoma next week, and will also have to win the Big XII Championship to stay alive.

What this all means is that the SEC Champion will be in the National Championship, barring some unforeseen string of upsets leaving all with two losses. If Texas wins the Conference title, they will probably be in, too. But if they fall, that will open the door for Boise State to slid in a venge the slights of their 2006 team, as well as '04 and '08 Utah, who were all "rewarded" with BCS bids against bigger powers and won.

That is, unless the BCS committee decides to freelance, which it tends to do when they sniff mid-major meddling. Should the Gators sit Tebow this week after suffering his first concussion ever and lose to LSU, the committee would no doubt consider Florida was without it's Heisman winner and fall back onto their previous assumptions.

Another possibility is the Oklahoma-Texas debate. Right now the Sooners are at no. 6. If Oklahoma were to beat Texas, they would more than likely be in the Big XII title game, thus giving them two games to impress the judges. Win them both and it will seem like their season-opening loss against BYU was just due to rust and not having their starter for two quarters.

Boise doesn't have that luxury. Their best win is already behind them and will need some help from Oregon to make it look more legit every day. Their remaining schedule -- against the likes of Idaho, New Mexico State and Nevada -- is what the committee kills programs over even though those schedules are made years in advance.

Again, consider Utah last year. They agreed to go to the Big House in Michigan, one of the most brutal places to visit, three years before the game was played. At that time, the Wolverines were legitimate contenders for the National Championship, and a year later were one of two unbeaten teams left before losing to the other, Ohio State, on the final regular season game. A win on the road against the powerful Wolverines looked to do wonders for a mid-major. Only it wasn't. A year went by and head coach Lloyd Carr hit the highway and Michigan finished 3-9 in '08. Suddenly their signature win was a counterfeit and voters admonished them for not scheduling tougher teams.

But that hasn't been the case for teams in major conferences. In 2007, Kansas leapfrogged all the way to no. 2 despite a schedule weaker than present day Boise State's, and would've been afforded a shot at the title had they beat Missouri at home late in the season. They didn't, and never sniffed a shot again.

What the real difference is: when you lose. Drop late in the season, say in a conference championship and you are finished. Voters can get over losing to BYU in the season-opener with your quarterback injured.

Remember, LSU limped into the title game with two losses in '07, the first time that's been "accomplished" in the BCS era.

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