Defending Champs Underdogs Against Dodgers in NLCS

NFL News - October 14th, 2009 - Written by John

The Philadelphia Phillies continue their quest to be the first repeating World Series Champions since the New York Yankees in the late-90s/early 00s this weekend. And they will travel the same road to get there as a year ago. For the second-straight season, the Phillies meet the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS.

The NL's top-scoring offense scored more runs than any other team in the divisional series'. Their slugging percentage (.452) and batting average (.296) was also tops among the initial eight teams. But their biggest boost has probably come from a surprise source in the bullpen. Brad Lidge has apparently exorcised his demons, closing out the final two wins in the series for the Phillies, allowing no runs in either game.

The Dodgers haven't needed their bullpen nearly as much. After a convincing 5-1 win over the St. Louis Cardinals last weekend, their offense seems to be clicking with a minor resurgence from Manny Ramirez. The left fielder had two big hits in the win and Andre Ethier nearly hit for the cycle. BetED is giving them the edge to beat the Phillies, with a payout of -120. They are surrendering 1 1/2 runs, according to the sportsbook, with an over.under of 7 1/2.

Conventional wisdom might suggest that the Dodgers have a slight edge over the Phillies for several reasons. First, they are riding the momentum of a three-game sweep over the Cardinals, who were actually favored to win the series. The Phillies were the only team in the entire playoffs who had to play a Game Four, thus allowing the Dodgers to have more rest before the second round. Secondly, the Dodgers have a stable of left-handed pitchers that each performed well in the NLDS and provide an interesting match-up against a heavy lefty lineup in Philadelphia. After all, the Phillies' OPS was 400 points lower against Colorado's lefty pitchers in the first round and it would appear that they would struggle against the Dodgers.

But a well-written blog on TheGoodPhight.com illustrates that neither of those two statistics really hold any weight.

Since the the playoffs were expanded in 1995, there have been 16 instances in the NLCS in which one of the teams swept the first round and the other team did not. Ten of those times, the team that did not sweep eventually won the pennant. The most recent instance? Last year when the Phillies came off a 3-1 win over the Brewers in the opening round and the Dodgers swept the Cubs. Philadelphia won the NLCS, then the World Title.

To the other point, that the Phillies can't hit lefties, they only had 13 at-bats against Colorado's south paws, and 157 against their righties -- indicating a faulty sample size. The Good Phight notes that the NL East champs actually were better against lefties in the regular season, with an OPS of .787 over their .779 against right-handed pitchers.

If they could only find a way of keeping Dodger fans from waving those white towels.

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