Several College Football Teams on Upset Alert This Week

NFL News - October 23rd, 2009 - Written by John

If there is anything to learn eight weeks into the college football season, it's that there seems to be a stark distinction between the top five teams in the country and everybody else. What started as an all-out brawl between the top teams has somewhat cooled off, with several potential upsets turning into mere scares.

Each of the teams in the BCS top-5 will have relatively easy weekends, with Tennessee at Alabama figuring to be the only competitive game. But among the stasis at the top, several other games stand out as potential busters.

1. Connecticut (+7 1/2) over no. 22 West Virginia -- This would probably be closer than the 7 1/2-point line anyway, but the Huskies have a fiery motivation to leave Morgantown with a win. It's only been about a week since several players watched teammate Jasper Howard fade away after being stabbed in the stomach during a fight. The entire community in Storrs was shocked by the cornerback's death and certainly want nothing more than to honor him with a victory. They will be wearing stickers with his initials on their helmets and are bringing his jersey and helmet on the sidelines. For the meat of the argument, it didn't figure to be a one-sided game anyway (West Virginia only averages two points more per game) and the Huskies haven't lost by more than four points. Their stats are surprisingly similar. Connecticut has 1,079 rushing yards to West Virginia's 1,108 and first downs per game are 19.3 to 20.2, respectively. The kicker may be the Mountaineers' tendency for mistakes. They have 337 penalty yards this year, while Connecticut is the least penalized team in the Big East with a mere 164 yards.

2. Texas A&M (+21) over Texas Tech -- So I'm sort of biased on this one because I adamantly believe that Texas Tech can score with anyone in the Big 12, but can be scored on by anyone in the Big 12. Sure, they are only allowing 19 points per game, which is respectable, but that average has been weighed down heavily by cupcake games against North Dakota, Rice and Nebraska (zing). In their two games against big offenses, Texas and Houston, the Red Raiders allowed more than 10 points higher than the average. Although the Aggies are 3-3, they still have one of the best quarterbacks you've probably never heard of in Jerrod Johnson. The junior is seventh in the country with 1,893 passing yards and 16 touchdowns. He also has four scores running the ball. He was picked off for the first time last week in a 62-14 blowout by Kansas State, though, and Texas A&M has lost three straight. All things considered, the Aggies did look good against Oklahoma State, their only ranked opponent to-date, two weeks ago and with a potentially explosive offense, it seems like oddsmakers are trying to take advantage of bettors' knee-jerk reaction that occurs every week. Texas Tech is in the bottom quarter of the nation in passing yards allowed and, although they will probably win the game, might find it hard to cover a three-touchdown advantage.

3. Oregon State (+20 1/2) over USC -- Remember last year? Oddsmaker apparently don't. Yes, every year changes and I'm not saying the Beavers have more than an outside chance at keeping it competitive(not to mention USC has already lost their one customary Pac-10 game). Statistically, they rank among the bottom of the nation in offense despite Jaquizz Rodgers living up to the billing in his second year. He leads the team in rushing with 697 yards and 13 touchdowns and is ninth in the nation in rushing yards per game. Oregon State played Cincinnati tough earlier in the year and haven't let a game get out of hand yet (both losses were by a combined 15 points). Revenge maybe enough motivation for the Trojans to pound Oregon State, but a near three-touchdown spread seems excessive, given that many of Oregon State's key players in last year's upset are still on the team.

Be sure to read our page on the NCAA Football Betting to see how these upsets will affect the betting odds for the games.

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